The impact of climate change on Tuscany forest sector: evaluation of economic damage in the period 2007-2099

Iacopo Bernetti, Christian Ciampi, Claudio Fagarazzi, Sandro Sacchelli

Abstract


The climate change occurred in the last few decades, and in particular in more recent years, involves several impacts at global and local scale from an environmental and
socio-economic point of view. Thus, the definition of techniques for quantification of economic damage resulting from climate change is very important for the management
of vulnerable systems.
According to the definition of vulnerability and resilience supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a set of criteria for evaluation of both features in woodland have been developed.
Concerning climate change risk on the forestry sector, Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy logic were applied to develop a framework for the assessment of
economic damage. In order to quantify the damage, the results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on spatial
analysis procedure applied to raster maps, which was then tested on Tuscany’s territory.

Keywords


climate change; Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence; fuzzy sets; forest economic damage; uncertainty

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